Auburn has won five of the last seven meetings with SEC West rival Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs are 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread over the last three encounters, including an upset victory as a home dog last season. MSU is a short road dog for Saturday night's clash with the Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Point spread: Tigers opened as 3.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.8-21.4 Bulldogs
Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread
Mississippi State is 2-1 both SU and ATS this season, after dispatching of Northwestern State last week 62-13, covering as 38-point chalk. The Bulldogs scored the first 20 points of the game to take control, and the last 28 to secure the cover. MSU racked up 647 yards on offense, 275 of those on the ground, despite holding the ball for just 21 minutes. That's some quick-strike offense right there.
The Bulldogs opened this season with a 34-16 victory over Southern Miss, although they couldn't quite cover as 21-point favorites. They then lost to LSU 21-19 but covered as three-point home dogs.
Mississippi State only returned seven starters this season from a team that went 10-3 last year, but one of them was Heisman candidate quarterback Dak Prescott, who almost rallied the troops in that tough Louisiana State loss, throwing for 335 yards. He gives the Bulldogs a solid advantage in the quarterback matchup for this contest.
Why the Auburn Tigers can cover the spread
War Eagle is 2-1 on the season after falling at Louisiana State last week 45-21. Auburn can't take too much solace from that performance, as it whiffed on the spread as a seven-point underdog, but then again, the Tigers are national championship contenders, and Death Valley isn't called Death Valley for nothing.
The Tigers opened this season with a 31-24 victory over Louisville, and had the spread covered with 10 minutes to go before giving up the last 14 points of the game.
Auburn then had to rally to defeat Jacksonville State in overtime 27-20, coming nowhere close to covering as a 44-point favorite. However, in retrospect, that game was probably lined poorly, as the Gamecocks, the No. 3 seed in last year's FCS playoffs, were vastly underrated.
Smart pick
So far this season Mississippi State has played a bit above expectations, while Auburn has played below what was expected. And those trends may well continue. The smart choice here is with the Bulldogs, and they might not even need the points.
Betting trends
Auburn is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games against Mississippi State.
Mississippi State is 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine games in September.
The total has gone under in Mississippi State's last five games against the SEC.
All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.
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