Why is Auburn Outside Preseason Top 25?

The Auburn Tigers will enter the season unranked in the AP poll.

Surprised? Probably not. After a meteoric fall from the top in 2015, the head scratching situation at quarterback, a historically bad stretch of defense, the sixth defensive coordinator in less than a decade, and the mass exodus of running backs, most fans, if they are honest with themselves, weren’t terribly surprised.

Some even welcomed it. Why not? Only Auburn can bounce back from disappointment, not just by adding one or two unexpected wins but going all the way. After all, it was only a few short years ago that Gus Malzahn took over a 3–9 team from former boss, Gene Chizik, and was 13 seconds short of Auburn’s second national championship in three years.

While Auburn fans have come to expect roller coaster rides of success and failure, an objective look from the outside might make a casual football fan scratch his/her head in wonderment.

Let’s cut to the quick. Is Auburn a top-ten team? No. Do the Tigers deserve to be out of the rankings entirely? Absolutely not. And, of course, “no one cares about the preseason rankings, anyway.” Unless, of course, you hold serve in the all-too-important playoff slots all year, which has been done and certainly matters. Just ask TCU.

In the modern age, pollsters have all the evidence they need to rank these teams in a logical way, yet Auburn is illogically positioned thanks to subjective, human elements.

The number one reason Auburn is devalued is it’s quarterback play in 2015 and the long time it took for Sean White to break away from the pack and win the job this season. And there is almost no faith that White, Jeremy Johnson, or John Franklin III can be an elite QB in a Gus Malzahn system that seems to need such a player. Yet, looking around at the rest of college football, the same situation exists elsewhere but doesn’t seem to hamper the rankings of those teams.

Over half of the ranked teams in the top 25 will have first-year quarterbacks. Others such as LSU  had down-right bad quarterback play in 2015, yet  LSU resides in the top five. Michigan State losses Connor Cook, the Sparty record for wins as a starter, yet Mark Dantonio’s team doesn’t get docked because his offense is considered “system oriented.” That is, the next man up will be just as good as the man before.

The same thing can be said for Oregon, Baylor, and Alabama. Several of the ranked teams are betting on transfer QBs, some of which couldn’t win on their old teams. Yet, teams like media darlings Michigan and Oregon are viewed as having “can’t miss” transfer QB’s. Michigan sits at No. 7 without a starter, a mediocre run game, and questions at receiver. Florida State and Georgia are potentially starting true freshmen against ranked opponents in week one.  Sound familiar?

Other teams received the benefit of the doubt about improved QB play. Take Tennessee, for example. Entering his third full season as a starter, Josh Dobbs and the Volunteers are once again highly touted, despite having done nothing of note the two preceding years. However, most pundits believe that another year will make Dobbs and the rest of the Vols better. The same can be said for Auburn’s 2015 opening day foe, Louisville. Analysts believe that the Cardinal’s success will stem from one-dimensional quarterback Lamar Jackson’s improvement in the passing game, which wasn’t good at all in 2015. 

It seems that Auburn doesn’t get judged the same way other teams are judged.

Will Jeremy Johnson be the next Jason Campbell? Is Sean White the next Stan White? Or will JF III be the next Nick Marshall? No one knows, but the jury seems to have closed the book on Auburn’s possibilities while other schools are destined to be better. 

It isn’t just the quarterback play. Auburn’s defense has been atrocious, hence the coaching staff turnover. The trend of poor defense has to stop sometime and it will likely be this year. Is it about coaching? Every single defensive coordinator since Ted Roof has fielded better defenses after leaving Auburn.  Is it about talent?

Auburn hasn’t finished outside the top ten in recruiting since 2008, and the crown jewels of each class have been defenders. What about player turnover?

Auburn returns almost its complete defense and also adds a healthy Carl Lawson as well as some experienced transfers such as T. J. Neal at linebacker. To the media, however, it seems that Auburn can’t and won’t improve, no matter what. 

Meanwhile, coaching turnover doesn’t seem to bother voters for other teams. Art Briles is out at Baylor after turning a doormat team into an offensive juggernaut. Auburn’s own Clay Helton takes over at USC in one of the most baffling hires in modern football. Kirby Smart takes over at UGA after Mark Richt averaged 10 wins a year. Despite potentially starting a true freshman at QB and questions about two injured running backs, Georgia ranks ahead of Auburn as do aforementioned Baylor and USC, where no one truly believes Helton can win.

What about player turnover? Auburn’s first foe, Clemson, brings back just three starters on defense yet holds the number two ranking. Ohio State earns the moniker “youngest team in America,” thanks to almost unprecedented turnover from last year’s disappointing team, but sits at No. 6. Other teams, such as Baylor and Oklahoma State, simply don’t play defense but find themselves in the thick of the rankings.

Pollsters would be quick to point at those teams’ coaching and offensive systems, something for which Malzahn seems to get no credit. Is his worst year as a coach so bad that voters think he forgot how to coach? They certainly don’t seem to believe that about Ohio State’s Urban Meyer, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney, or Alabama’s Nick Saban. 

It appears that other teams get the benefit of the doubt for whatever reason, but not Auburn perhaps because, well, it’s Auburn. Do preseason rankings really matter? For the most part, not at all. Are they indicative of how the season will go? Certainly not.

As an Auburn fan, it is frustrating to be devalued and marginalized. But, maddening as it may be, even if unwarranted, the situation bodes well for the Tigers. 

What do you think? Make sure to comment and tweet me @Best5Zach on Twitter!

The post Why is Auburn Outside Preseason Top 25? appeared first on Track 'Em Tigers, Auburn's oldest and most read independent blog.

from Track 'Em Tigers, Auburn's oldest and most read independent blog http://bit.ly/2byRRNk
via IFTTT