Predicting the Future: How Malzahn’s Offenses Fare in Season Openers

The September 3rd matchup between last year’s national runner up Clemson and the Auburn Tigers isn’t quite the premier game of what is shaping up to be the best opening weekend of college football ever. That doesn’t mean that it hasn’t garnered a lot of attention. The game was largely ignored for much of the preseason, but as the hype surrounding Deshaun Watson and the Clemson Tigers continues to grow, it has inadvertently brought the Auburn Tigers into national focus. Though most Auburn fans are glad to be back in the spotlight, many would agree that it will be especially nice to move on from being last year’s biggest bust. 

Auburn enters the Tiger-on-Tiger game as a double-digit underdog. Not only is it one of the heaviest ‘dogs in a premier matchup, they Tigers become one of the few to be underdogs at home. Though the media is talking about Auburn, they are talking about just how lopsided they expect this game to be. Being at home usually means a three-point swing in favor of the home team. So, with many sites leaning beyond Clemson’s 9.5 point spread, the national perception is that Auburn is basically expected to lose by two touchdowns.

While it has been well publicized that Auburn relishes the underdog role, there aren’t many fans that really believe Auburn has a chance to win this game. Much of that sentiment stems from the fact that only negative news and speculation is oozing out of Auburn with fall camp completed. The little information fans have received has been about player departures, more specifically starting running back Jovon Robinson, lack of separation between quarterbacks, and low-scoring scrimmages that seem lacking in big plays from an offense that looked to be a far cry from expectations of what a Hurry Up No Huddle Gus Malzahn offense should be. Furthermore, Malzahn hasn’t done much to help things, barring mainstream media and limiting interviews with players while being predictably tight lipped. 

So fans are left with speculation. Just how will Auburn fare against the number-two team in the land?

Let’s instead look at Auburn’s trends, specifically the offense.

While past Auburn successes been built on a solid defense, the team has gone to two national championship games because of Gus Malzahn and his offense. Therefore, it stands to reason that as the Hurry Up No Huddle goes, so does Auburn. Just see 2015 as evidence. 

Gus Malzahn in Opening Games

As either an offensive coordinator or head coach, Gus Malzahn is 11–3 in openers. He is a perfect 6–0 at Auburn, having played (in order) Louisiana Tech, Arkansas State, Utah State, Washington State, Arkansas, and Louisville. In his other three openers, he played USC while at Arkansas in 2006 and UL-Monroe and UAB while at Tulsa in 2007 and 2008, respectively. 

However, only one of those 11 wins came against a team that would finish in the top 25. All losses came to teams that would finish in the top 25, with the 2006 loss to USC and the 2012 loss to Oregon coming at the hands of teams that would finish second nationally.

In the Auburn openers, Auburn punted on its first drive three times while the other drives resulted in two touchdowns and one field goal. Opposing teams punted three times, scored two touchdowns and threw an interception. In his games outside of Auburn for which play-by-play stats were kept, his opening drives resulted in a punt, touchdown, and fumble while opponents scored a touchdown and two field goals. The net result is that Gus has been outscored 24–27 on opening drives. 

At halftime of their nine openers, Malzahn’s teams trailed in all but four games, all of which were in his time at Auburn where he trailed only once, 14–21 against Utah State in 2011. When losing at halftime, Gus is 3–2, but he has never had to overcome more than a seven-point margin. In his losses, however, he has never faced less than a nine-point deficit. He has scored over 20 points in the first half just twice while being held at or under 14 points five different times. Malzahn’s offense has scored less than twenty only once, his 2006 50–15 loss to USC. His offenses have averaged over 36 points per contest, and his Auburn offenses have never scored less than 30 points in an opener. 

Gus Malzahn Against Premium Out of Conference Opponents

At Auburn, Malzahn has coached six regular season games against five different “premium” out-of-conference foes, including the aforementioned openers. He is 5–3 in games against USC in 2006, West Virginia in 2009, Clemson in 2010 and 2011, Oregon in 2012, Washington State in 2013, Kansas State in 2014 and Louisville in 2015. In the first drives of those games, Malzahn’s offense scored just once, a touchdown against Louisville, thanks to a first-play turnover by the defense, while punting six times and fumbling once. His teams were winning in just three of those contests at halftime while being tied once. He has been held under seven points at halftime three times while scoring over 20 points four times. Against these premium foes, the Malzahn offense averaged over 27 points per game. 

Gus Malzahn Against Clemson

Auburn played Clemson in a home-and-home series in 2010 and 2011 and went 1–1. Auburn beat Clemson at home in an overtime game, needing a missed Clemson field goal to win 27–24. Auburn lost in Death Valley 38–24. In both of those games, Auburn scored 24 points in regulation. At halftime Auburn was losing 17–3 in 2010 and was tied 21–21 in 2011.

In summation, the Clemson matchup represents unfamiliar ground for Auburn, as it hasn’t been underdogs at home or in an opener in recent memory (perhaps going back to 2003?). How will the players react?

Fans should expect a terrific offensive production from Auburn, even against a top rated team, especially in an opening game against a nonconference opponent. Auburn fans should remain behind their team early, even if Auburn is losing at halftime. After all, Malzahn’s offenses have frequently been slow starting but finished as well as anyone in the country. 

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