Staff Picks - SEC Week 3

Hurricane!

Last week was a bit rough. We all took at least one loss by having faith that our beloved Tigers would show up in Athens. That’s on us to be honest. Even the three of us that picked a loss couldn’t bring ourselves to lay the points. Thus most everyone was brought back to the middle. We do have a clear leader and clear basement though:
Josh Black: 17-11 (8-6 last week)
Chief: 16-12 (6-8 last week)
Crow: 14-14 (10-4 last week!)
Jack: 14-14 (7-7 last week; yep, two 7-7 weeks; he’s getting killed by the vig)
Ryan: 14-14 (6-8 last week)
Jonesy: 13-15 (4-10 last week; MISTAKES WERE MADE)
Josh W: 13-15 (5-9 last week)
Nerd: 11-17 (5-9 last week)
Dr Will: 11-17 (6-8 last week)
Drew Mac: 9-19 (4-10 last week)

Congrats to Crow for the 10-4 week. A theoretical bonus point for picking Arkansas outright as well. If he keeps this up, there are going to be some bike merchants in Texas rubbing their hands together.

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As for this week, we have several games that will be, or in one case have already been, affected by Hurricane Delta. Ole Miss vs. Alabama, which would have been primed for a high total, could be played while some of the outer bands come through. LSU/Missouri has already flipped venues, which I’m sure has LSU fans asking for Missouri to come to Baton Rouge the next 5 years in a row as compensation. Depending on the path and size, Texas A&M/Florida and Auburn/Arkansas could be affected as well.

Note: most of these lines were pre-Delta, so you’ll probably find some very different numbers out there. I’ve moved the Alabama/Ole Miss total down to a more recent number, but the rest are as-is. I figure after last week, we could use the value.

Texas A&M vs Florida (-7) (O/U 54.5)

SP+ pick: Florida -9.7; over

The Aggies certainly cleaned up some of their self-inflicted issues from the Vanderbilt game in Tuscaloosa, but they were eviscerated by Mac Jones. Now they get to return home and face a passing game that has rivaled Alabama’s to this point. The Gators probably don’t have quite the downfield passing game of Alabama, but considering Kyle Pitts has been uncoverable to this point, I could see them put up big numbers too. Florida let South Carolina sneak in and get a backdoor cover last week. I don’t think there’s any worry of that this week. The first of the road dogs takes care of business, and the current path of Delta should keep it from affecting the total.
Florida 34, A&M 24 (Florida wins and covers; over)

Staff Picks:

Josh Black: Florida 38, A&M 20 (Florida wins and covers; over)
Nerd: Gators 35, Aggies 24 (Florida wins and covers; over)
Josh W: Texas A&M 21, Florida 49 (Florida wins and covers; over)
Crow: UF 31, Aggy 20 (Florida wins and covers; under)
Ryan: 35-24 Florida (Florida wins and covers; over)
Jack: 38-16 Florida (Florida wins and covers; under by the hook)
Drew Mac: Gatas 38-17 (Florida wins and covers; over by the hook)
Dr Will: Florida 31 Texas A&M 20 (Florida wins and covers; under)
Chief: Florida 31 - TAMU 17 (Florida wins and covers; over)

Vanderbilt vs South Carolina (-12) (O/U 48.5)

SP+ pick: South Carolina -17.8; under

Gross. Vanderbilt has shown no ability be explosive on offense, and the other side is coached by Will Muschamp. If this was the only game on TV, I’d load up something on one of the 19 different streaming platforms we all have to subscribe to now. If SP+ likes the road favorite and the under, that sounds good to me. Gamecocks 27-13 (South Carolina wins and covers; under)

Staff Picks:

Josh Black: Carolina 31 Vandy 17 (South Carolina wins and covers; under by the hook)
Nerd: Cocks 38 Dores 14 (South Carolina wins and covers; over)
Josh W: Vanderbilt 15, South Carolina 35 (South Carolina wins and covers; over)
Crow: SCAR 22, Vandy 14 (South Carolina wins, Vandy covers; under)
Ryan: 20-10 Sakerlina (South Carolina wins, Vandy covers; under)
Jack: 31-17 South Carolina (South Carolina wins and covers; under by the hook)
Drew Mac: Skankerlina 38-16 (Souther Carolina wins and covers; over)
Dr Will: Aw what the heck.... Vandy 24 South Carolina 21 (Vandy wins outright; under)
Chief: Ewww. Cocky 18 - Vandy 10 (South Carolina wins, Vandy covers; under)

Georgia (-12) vs Tennessee (O/U 42.5)

SP+ pick: Georgia -13; over (by the hook)

Another measuring stick game for us, but this should also be the best game of the day. Tennessee has a few playmakers on defense and has built a strong offensive line by recruiting talented offensive linemen. WHO KNEW THAT WAS A THING THAT COULD HAPPEN? I CERTAINLY DID NOT.

I don’t know that Tennessee has the horses to pull this one out in Athens, but I think they’ll be able to control the ball and turn this one into SEC football circa 1988. The weather should stay away, but that total is low for a reason other than weather. Georgia 24-17 (Georgia wins, Tennessee covers; under)

Staff Picks:

Josh Black: Georgia 27, Tennessee 14 (Georgia wins and covers; under)
Nerd: UGA 23, UT 13 (Georgia wins, Tennessee covers; under)
Josh W: Georgia 40, Tennessee 10 (Georgia wins and covers; over)
Crow: Tennessee 35, UGA 28 (Tennessee wins outright; over)
Ryan: 24-23 Tennessee (Tennessee wins outright; over)
Jack: 23-20 Tennessee (Tennessee wins outright; over by the hook)
Drew Mac: Dawgs 23-17 (Georgia wins, Tennessee covers; under)
Dr Will: Picking 2 double digit underdogs outright?? Sure, why not! Tennessee 31 Georgia 28 (Tennessee wins outright; over)
Chief: Dwags 32 - Vols 27 (Georgia wins, Tennesssee covers; over)

Ole Miss vs Alabama (-23) (O/U 69.5)

SP+ pick: Ole Miss +21.6; under

This one could have been really fun without the weather. The total on this one has moved all over the place. At this point it appears that Hurricane Delta will be nailing the Oxford area right as this thing kicks off. I think Alabama leans on their running game while Ole Miss still tries to run about 5 different trick plays. None of them work, and one of them winds up being 6 the other way. This one turns into a sloppy mess. A few missed extra points on a slick track means Alabama 39-17 (Alabama wins, Ole Miss covers; under)

Staff Picks:

Josh Black: Alabama 66, Ole Miss 31 (Alabama wins and covers; over)
Nerd: Bama 56, Ole Miss 31 (Alabama wins and covers; over)
Josh W: Ole Miss 9, Alabama 34 (Alabama wins and covers; under)
Crow: Tide 72-30 (Alabama wins and covers; over)
Ryan: 45-31 Alabama (Alabama wins, Ole Miss covers; over)
Jack: 52-28 Alabama (Alabama wins and covers; over)
Drew Mac: uat 69 (nice) -13 (Alabama wins and covers; over)
Dr Will: Alabama 36, Ole Miss 18 (Alabama wins, Ole Miss covers; under)
Chief: Alabama 56-25 (Alabama wins and covers; over)

Kentucky (-3) vs Mississippi State (O/U 55.5)

SP+ pick: MSU +2.2; over

Let’s not overcomplicate this. Kentucky is desperate. Kentucky is at home. Kentucky can run the ball and keep it away from KJ Costello. Kentucky has veterans in the secondary and a coaching staff that does not include Bo Pelini. Kentucky will win 31-24 (Kentucky wins and covers; under by the hook)

Staff Picks:

Josh Black: Kentucky 27, Mississippi State 21 (Kentucky wins and covers; under)
Nerd: UK 28, Mississippi State 24 (Kentucky wins and covers; under)
Josh W: Kentucky 28, Mississippi State 24 (Kentucky wins and covers; under)
Crow: UK 34, MSU 17 (Kentucky wins and covers; under)
Ryan: 28-27 Kentucky (Kentucky wins, MSU covers; under by the hook)
Jack: Mississippi State 31-24 (MSU wins outright; under by the hook)
Drew Mac: Staaaate 34-20 (MSU wins outright; under)
Dr Will: Mississippi State 34, Kentucky 31 (MSU wins outright; over)
Chief: State 55 - UK 37 (MSU wins outright; over)

Missouri vs LSU (-18) (O/U 54.5)

SP+ pick: Missouri +12.5; under

Another game that has been affected by the weather, in that it is no longer an LSU home game. Well at least LSU was planning on wearing white anyway. Missouri’s best chance at a cover here is one of the backdoor variety. They pulled it off against Alabama, but they missed it on the road against Tennessee. LSU can probably athlete their way to a solid 3 touchdown lead, but I think they let Mizzou sneak in that back door. LSU wins 34-17 (LSU wins, Missouri covers; under)

Staff Picks:

Josh Black: LSU 48, Mizzou 17 (LSU wins and covers; over)
Nerd: LSU 41, Mizzou 16 (LSU wins and covers; over)
Josh W: Missouri 13, LSU 38 (LSU wins and covers; under)
Crow: LSU 39, MIZ 19 (LSU wins and covers; over)
Ryan: 38-14 LSU (LSU wins and covers; under)
Jack: 35-13 LSU (LSU wins and covers; under)
Drew Mac: Tigers...The yellow ones....WITH COACH O 38-13 (LSU wins and covers; under)
Dr Will: All the best to the folks in Louisiana dealing with yet another hurricane. LSU 38, Mizzou 17 (LSU wins and covers; over by the hook)
Chief: LSU 36 - Mizzou 16 (LSU wins and covers; under)

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