AuburnFamilyNews.com: Auburn, Malzahn on Defcon alert at Ole Miss; for Tide, nothing rocky about Rocky Top

Friday, October 19, 2018

Auburn, Malzahn on Defcon alert at Ole Miss; for Tide, nothing rocky about Rocky Top


There's not a lot to like about Auburn right now.

The offense?

Come on.

After seven games the 4-3 Tigers, out of the top 25 for the first time this season, are 11th in rushing, averaging 158.4 yards. They ran for 20 in the second half in last week's 30-24 loss to 15 1/2-point underdog Tennessee.

We can't even tell you how bad Tennessee's been on defense before Auburn.
The Vols had given up 47 and 38 points in their previous two games. There are other issues on offense, but Auburn's trademark is the run and so far it's running out of chances to have a winning season.

The defense?

There's still hope because of its front seven, which is still one of the SEC's best. But it has issues too, especially now that Stidham and Co. have become a wreck.
Against a Vols offense that had not scored more than 24 points against a Division I team, Auburn couldn't stop Tennessee quarterback Jarrett Guarantano, who had been more of a coach's headache than a dynamic passer. Guarantano threw for 328 yards and two touchdowns. He hadn't passed for more than 185 in any game this year.

In four conference games this season, the defense that was so heralded in the preseason has made three quarterbacks -- LSU's Joe Burrow, Fitzgerald and Guarantano --  SEC offensive player of the week.

Auburn is a four-point favorite in Saturday's 11 a.m. kickoff at Ole Miss, which has the nation's fourth-best offense, averaging 41.6 points and 551 yards a game.

The Rebels' defense is the SEC's second worst, giving up 35.1 points and almost 500 yards a game.

With games remaining against Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Liberty and road games at Georgia and Alabama, Auburn's chances of reaching bowl eligibility will turn on this weekend's outcome in Oxford.

It's getting so it's hard to keep up with all the must-win games Gus Malzahn has needed to stay off the hot seat in his six years as head coach, but Ole Miss falls in the Defcon column.

With what lies ahead, a loss could mean Auburn's worst season since Gene Chizik's 3-9 job in 2012.

This week's picks:

Auburn vs. Ole Miss
It's possible the Tigers and the nation's sixth highest paid coach can stop the bleeding.

Beating Ole Miss and Liberty will guarantee a bowl trip but beating No. 17 Texas A&M, No. 8 Georgia and No. 1 Alabama would make Malzahn the college comeback kid and bring energy back to the program.

Danny Sheridan, what are the odds? Losing in Oxford a week after helping Tennessee snap an 11-game SEC losing streak would just about make it official Auburn finishes 6-6.
Auburn 36, Ole Miss 31

Alabama vs. Tennessee
The Third Saturday in October has turned into a bummer. Twelve straight wins against the Volunteers just sucks the tradition out of a good Third Saturday.

Tennessee (3-3)  has actually dropped 11 in a row to the top-ranked Crimson Tide (7-0), but as a 29-point underdog feel free to do the math. There isn't much the Volunteers can do to change that. Upsetting Auburn on the road looks good on the resume but the Vols are still going to struggle against teams that can run and pass and play defense.

Former Alabama defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt has UT on a path toward respectability. He's even found some playmakers in Guarantano, running back Ty Chandler, receivers Jauan Jenning, Josh Palmer and Marquez Callaway. The defense has a few too, ends Kyle Phillips and Alexis Johnson and freshman cornerbacks Alontae Taylor and Bryce Thompson. The future looks bright. Saturday doesn't.

With an open date coming up and then No. 5 LSU in Baton Rouge, bettors might want to take the Tennessee and the points, or the under (57), because a lot of Alabama starters are going to be on the sideline in the second half if the Tide does its usual scoring early in bunches.
Alabama 45, Tennessee 13

North Texas vs. UAB
At the top of Conference USA's West Division sits UAB (5-1) with its 3-0 league record. In a three-way tie for second are North Texas, Louisiana Tech and Texas-San Antonio, all at 2-1.

North Texas (6-1), a slight underdog in Saturday's 6 p.m. game at Legion Field, won the division last season and is off to its best start in 30 years. North Texas coach Seth Littrell is in his third season and is such a rising star in the coaching fraternity that super agent Jimmy Sexton added him to his stable of clients. His notoriety soared after the Mean Green upset Arkansas in Fayetteville last month.
Standing in UNT's way of getting back to the league title game is UAB, which has C-USA's top scoring defense. If the Blazers want to be a legit contender this is the moment. They can open a commanding lead in the West with a victory.  It's going to take lights-out defense to do it, to contain quarterback Mason Fine, one of the nation's top passers. He's thrown for 2,210 yards, 16 touchdowns and one interception. His 16-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio is surpassed only by Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa (21 touchdowns, no picks). UAB's A.J. Erdely has 1,181 yards, seven TDs and five picks.

What UAB does best, besides playing defense, is control the clock with its running game. Will that work against the 40-points-a-game Mean Green? A shootout won't.
UAB 31, North Texas 28

SEC
LSU 24, Mississippi State 20
Arkansas 30, Tulsa 24
Kentucky 28, Vanderbilt 21

Spoiler alert
9 1/2-point underdog Memphis 37, Missouri 35
7-point underdog Virginia 26, Duke 23
3-point underdog Temple 26, No. 20 Cincinnati 23
Winless Nebraska 30, Minnesota 24

Other games
Michigan 23, Michigan State 17
Oklahoma 40, TCU 37
Clemson 28, NC State 17
Washington 30, Colorado 27
Washington State 35, Oregon 31
Florida Atlantic 38, Marshall 30
Iowa 25, Maryland 21
Ohio State 40, Purdue 28
Utah 30, USC 27
Texas Tech 41, Kansas 27

Last week: 13-7
Season: 106-34




from Auburn Sports Impact http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2018/10/post_932.html

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