Gus Malzahn's biggest worry could doom Auburn's season

It was one of the best season-opening victories in Auburn football history, but turns out it was just a tune-up.

After a rare down year in 2017, the SEC West is back and it's once again the baddest division in college football. On Tuesday, every team in the West except Arkansas received votes for the AP Top 25, and Arkansas beat Eastern Illinois 55-20.

Alabama remained No.1 followed by No.7 Auburn, No.11 LSU and No.18 Mississippi State. Texas A&M and Ole Miss aren't far back after impressive season openers.

For Auburn, that means one of the most difficult schedules in the country now looks like something close to impossible. This season is shaping up to be the most challenging test of Gus Malzahn's time at Auburn, and how the Tigers' coach develops his running game will be the deciding factor in the team's success.

Right now, with LSU just two weeks away, it's not good enough.

As Malzahn pointed out in his weekly news conference on Tuesday, the biggest improvement a team makes every season is usually between Week 1 and Week 2. Auburn's offensive line has work to do. It managed just 147 yards on the ground against Washington, which would have been the Tigers' second lowest rushing total last season.

"I think that was really good information to find out that first game," Malzahn said of his offensive line struggles. "Some programs might not find out until the second half of the season, and what really stood out to me is we got to run the football better."

Until Auburn 21, Washington 16, the Tigers hadn't won a game with under 150 rushing yards since 2013. In its SEC opener that year, Auburn was outgained by Dak Prescott's Mississippi State 202-120, but won 24-20 thanks to quarterback Nick Marshall's arm (339 yards and two touchdowns).

This season, the quarterback is excellent and the defense is loaded, but if Auburn continues to average just 3.3 yards per carry, this team could lose three times before it even makes it to the Georgia game. That's the cold reality of Auburn's brutal schedule, which, after the first week of the football season, is now somehow more difficult than what anyone was expecting.

Show me a sure win besides the non-conference games like this Saturday's home opener against Alabama State. Tennessee is the closest thing, but the Tigers get the Vols between road games against Mississippi State (Oct.6) and Ole Miss (Oct.20). That's a trap game against an opposing coach who is less than one year removed from Alabama.

No. 6 Washington was the highest-ranked team Auburn has ever defeated to begin a season, but it only gets harder from here. Jarrett Stidham's arm isn't going to be enough.

Auburn moved up two spots to No.7 in the AP Top 25, but Stidham's late-game heroics covered up some major offensive concerns. With its running game stalling out the offense, the Tigers left points on the field in the first half, and then fell behind the Huskies in the fourth quarter.

Auburn probably would have made it three losses in a row at Mercedes-Benz Stadium if Auburn buck linebacker Nick Coe didn't force Washington quarterback Jake Browning to fumble at the goal-line in the third quarter.

Auburn failed to sniff the red zone on six consecutive drives between the second and fourth quarters, and rushed for just 17 rushing yards in the third period. With so many excellent offenses in the SEC this season, extending drives and linking together first downs will be the difference in close games.

Take away Tennessee, which lost 40-14 to West Virginia, and Auburn's seven other SEC opponents averaged 50.4 points per game in Week 1.

"Anytime you play a quality opponent, you find out where you're at," Malzahn said on Tuesday. "You find out your strengths, and you find out what you need to improve on...

"We need to run the football better, but it's a big advantage we played against a big-time defensive front."

The good news is that Auburn's teams under Malzahn have a history of improving the run game as the season progresses. No one likes being reminded of a nightmare, but Auburn managed just 38 yards rushing against Clemson in 2017. Two weeks later (and after a scare to Mercer, Auburn's running backs beat up Missouri for 263 yards on the ground, or 5.0 yards per carry.

Malzahn gets back two more offensive options this week with receivers Eli Stove and Will Hastings returning from injury. Nothing is official on their return, but they'll most likely be eased back to game shape before LSU's visit to Jordan-Hare Stadium on Sept. 15. Stove and Hastings are possession receivers, so that should take some pressure off of Auburn's offensive line.

But Auburn can't beat LSU without a consistent running game, or at least it hasn't since Malzahn became the head coach in 2013. He's 3-2 against LSU in five seasons, and the only victory without a 100-yard rusher was in 2016. Kerryon Johnson had 93 yards, and Auburn averaged 3.1 yards on the ground in the victory. LSU fired Les Miles the next day.

The only team with a schedule tougher than Auburn's this season might be LSU, which plays Florida and Georgia back-to-back in addition to its schedule inside the SEC West. Like Auburn, the Bayou Tigers defeated a non-conference top 10 team in Week 1. LSU knocked off No.8 Miami 33-17, and held the Canes to 2.4 yards per carry.

For the next two weeks, that should be the only number Auburn's offensive line hears about.

Joseph Goodman is a columnist for the Alabama Media Group. He's on Twitter @JoeGoodmanJr.

from Auburn Sports Impact http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2018/09/gus_malzahns_biggest_worry_cou.html