Predicted Order of Finish in SEC West

Kickoff for the first SEC games of 2016 is just one day away, so I’ve compiled my predicted order of finish list for the toughest division in college football — the SEC West. 

1. LSU (12-0)

Losses: None

This is an LSU team that will look eerily similar to last season, as the Tigers return a staggering number of returning starters — nine on offense, and ten on defense. With Leonard Fournette in the backfield once again, I just can’t see the Tigers relying too heavily on Brandon Harris’ passing ability this year. As long as Fournette stays healthy and OC Cam Cameron is able to shake up the play-calling a bit more than last season, the offense should be just fine. I believe a little fire under Les Miles’ rear is just what this team needs to find that offensive spark in 2016. On the defensive side of the ball, former Wisconsin assistant Dave Aranda will take over as DC following the departure of Kevin Steele to Auburn. Aranda will have plenty of experience to work with, as the Tigers will start nine upperclassmen on defense this season.  

LSU’s schedule shapes up nicely this year for a championship run, as they get Ole Miss and Alabama at home, not to mention a bye week before facing the Crimson Tide.

Expect great things from this team, as they earn their first SEC title since 2011. 

2. Ole Miss (10-2)

Losses: Florida State, @LSU

Yes, the losses of the Nkemdiche brothers, Laremy Tunsil, and Laquon Treadwell will certainly hurt, but the Rebels still have a plethora of weapons to work with on both sides of the ball. From Heisman hopeful QB Chad Kelly to future NFL DB Tony Conner, this team is loaded with depth and talent. 

One of the few causes for concern on the offensive side of the ball is the lack of experience on the offensive line, as the unit returns just two starters from last season with a combined 36 starts — tied for 107th in the nation. The past few years, the Rebels have struggled to run the ball effectively between the tackles However, if Greg Little, the no. 1 offensive tackle recruit in the 2016 class, is able to live up to the hype as Laremy Tunsil’s replacement, then this offense will be quite dangerous. Because while QB Chad Kelly certainly has the speed to evade pressure from the defense, if given time in the pocket, he won’t be afraid to burn you through the air, as he led the SEC in passing yardage last season with 4,042 yards.

Ole Miss will be tested early, as they play Florida State on Monday night to start their 2016 campaign before taking on Wofford, Alabama, and Georgia at home. If the Rebels can skate past that slate of games with at least three wins, watch out.

With one of the most versatile offenses in the SEC, this year is shaping up to be a great one in Oxford. Rebel fans may want to enjoy it, as this could be their last season free from NCAA probation.

3. Alabama (10-2)

Losses: @Tennessee, @LSU

My most shocking pick of the article has Alabama dropping below LSU and Ole Miss this season to finish third in the West. But because of the division’s strength this season, is it really even considered to be a shocking possibility? 

In typical Alabama fashion, the quarterback race is still up in the air between Cooper Bateman and Blake Barnett according to Nick Saban, so expect both of them to play on Saturday against USC. Most people say that mediocre quarterback at Alabama isn’t really a cause for concern considering the number of other weapons that the offense contains. For the most part, this is true. It’s never about the individual under Nick Saban, the focus is always on the team as a whole. The idea that almost anyone on that team could be replaced in an instant by someone of equal or greater caliber. 

All that said, I still believe that this will be a “down year” for Alabama. But not by the fault of their own. Alabama’s schedule this year is the one of the toughest in the nation, second only to Auburn’s.The cannibalism of the SEC West should be alive and well this season, as Alabama will be on the road against Ole Miss, Tennessee, and LSU — arguably three of the top four SEC teams. You would have to expect at least one loss scattered somewhere in those games. I think there will be two. 

Alabama will beat Ole Miss in the regular season, but because of an extra conference loss for the Tide against their tough cross-division opponent (Tennessee), Ole Miss will finish ahead of Alabama in the final SEC standings. 

4. Auburn (8-4)

Losses: Clemson, LSU, @Ole Miss, @Alabama

Each offseason, it’s a media goose chase of sorts to try and successfully predict Auburn’s final record. In recent years, when Auburn is predicted to perform poorly, the Tigers come out and shock the nation by drastically exceeding expectations. But when they are predicted to finish near the top of the conference, it’s as if there’s a curse placed over the entire football program where anything that could go wrong, does. A cruel joke. 

On paper, Auburn should finish middle of the table in the SEC. And I think that’s about right. 

Sean White is not the ideal quarterback for Malzahn’s system, I understand that. But I do think he’ll be able to get the job done. After re-watching the spring game this week, White by far had the best presence at the quarterback position. He seemed more poised, confident, with a better grasp of the offensive system. And while he may have made a wrong read here or there, he was able to keep his composure — something I haven’t seen since Nick Marshall left. Maybe, just maybe, he’ll surprise us with his feet this year. I know he has some speed under his legs, so if he surprises the defensive ends every now and then by keeping it on the read option, it would have the potential to open up a world of possibilities for the run game.

On defense, this should be Auburn’s best in years. With a defensive line that contains four and five-star talent, there’s no reason that this unit shouldn’t be one of the nation’s best. Kevin Steele will be playing to Auburn’s strengths as he will start a healthy Carl Lawson in the Buck linebacker position to provide versatility for defense against the run, as well as dropping him into coverage to stop the pass on zone blitzes. As long as Lawson and the rest of the defensive line stays healthy, the Tigers will give opposing quarterbacks nightmares this year with its strong pass rush.

The schedule certainly doesn’t work in Auburn’s favor, as it very well could be the toughest in the nation. Opening with Clemson this Saturday will serve as a significant test before playing Arkansas State, Texas A&M and LSU at home to kick off Auburn’s SEC slate.The rest of the schedule also includes road games against Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama.  Similar to Ole Miss, if the Tigers can escape the first third of their season with a miraculous three wins, then they will be well on track to deliver a season to remember on the Plains. 

5. Texas A&M (5-7)

Losses: @Auburn, Tennessee, @Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU

Following the “unofficial” trade of quarterbacks between Oklahoma and Texas A&M, the Aggies ended up landing one of the best transfer quarterbacks on the market, Trevor Knight, while also losing sophomore QB Kyler Murray to the Sooners.

Knight had a very up-and-down journey during his time at Oklahoma. As a freshman, he stepped in for the injured Blake Bell and led the Sooners to a 45-31 win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. His sophomore year, he was replaced by Baker Mayfield nine games into the season due to lackluster play. And last year, he sat on the bench behind Mayfield most of the year, attempting just 40 passes the entire season. Now, at Texas A&M, Knight is looking for redemption. That spells good news for the Aggies.

Kevin Sumlin made a solid hire this offseason by snagging UCLA OC Noel Mazzone, and the pairing of Trevor Knight’s arm and Mazzone’s power spread offensive system will be deadly to opposing defenses in the conference. On the defensive side, John Chavis returns for his second season in College Station with a stacked defense that includes first-team All-SEC DE Myles Garrett, who some experts believe will be the no. 1 pick in the NFL Draft this year. 

It’s do or die time for Kevin Sumlin, as his seat is red hot this year. The fifth-year head coach has all the right tools around him to make up a solid team, but with a top heavy SEC West and tough conference games against Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU, I find it difficult to believe that the Aggies even have a chance at winning nine games.

6. Mississippi State (6-6)

Losses: @LSU, Auburn, @BYU, Texas A&M, @Alabama, @Ole Miss

While former Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott is relishing his time his time in Dallas after being named the Cowboys’ starter, the quarterback race rolls on in Starkville in a two-man quarterback race between Nick Fitzgerald and Damian Williams. Both are expected to play on Saturday against South Alabama as no starter has been named ahead of the game. 

Surprisingly enough, the Bulldogs return seven starters on offense, and six on defense. Granted, among those players that left were offensive playmakers, Dak Prescott and WR De’Runnya Wilson, and defensive stars, LB Beniquez Brown and DT Chris Jones. Needless to say, this team has pretty big shoes to fill this season. Assuming the Bulldogs can find a quarterback following their game against South Alabama, Dan Mullen’s offense will have an advantage with an experienced offensive line leading the force, as the unit returns four starters from last season, three of which are seniors. Solid line play will be crucial to provide comfort for the new quarterbacks in the pocket. 

A key game for State will be on October 8th against Auburn at home with the clanging cowbells on its side. If the Bulldogs are able to pull out a win against the Tigers, that could be a huge momentum shift for two very winnable games on the road against BYU and Kentucky. But if not, it could be a very long year in StarkVegas. 

7. Arkansas (4-8)

Losses: @TCU, @Texas A&M, Alabama, Ole Miss, @Auburn, Florida, LSU, @Mississippi State

I hold the opinion that Bret Bielema is not the answer for Arkansas. Other than a hot tail end of the year last season, what does he have to show for his time in Fayetteville? And this season will be even tougher for Bielema in his fourth year as head coach of the Razorbacks. 

The offense lost three of its most powerful weapons in QB Brandon Allen, and RB’s Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams. The Hogs will look to Kody Walker, a sixth-year senior to pick up most of the load on the ground this year. Walker is coming into the 2016 season with just 148 career carries for 644 yards during his time at Arkansas. At quarterback, Brandon Allen’s younger brother, Austin Allen, was named the starter back in April. 19 passing attempts is all he has to his name during his time in college, so this will be a rebuilding year of sorts for Bret Bielema’s offense, as the unit will struggle undergo growing pains due to a lack of experience at the quarterback and running back positions. 

Coach Bielema could very well enter the 2017 season on the hot seat.

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