Deciding Game Three of WCWS National Championship Preview

College softball has arrived on the national stage thanks to your Auburn Tigers. That isn’t to discredit how popular the game was already, but there has never been a series like this 2016 Women’s College World Series Finals.  

Game play like this is exactly what all of women’s sports, especially softball, needed to gain a national following. Gaining more popularity will be even more critical on the international stage as the Olympic committee just decided to bring back softball for the 2020 Olympic Games. 

Though Auburn fell in game one, the ladies still provided not one but two Sportcenter Top 10 moments. Along the way, they very nearly pulled off an incredible comeback, with Auburn down 3-2 in the last inning and Casey McCrackin getting caught at the plate. 

When everyone in the country has the time to digest it, last night’s will become the greatest women’s college world series game of all time. The Tigers rallied from a 7-0 deficit after the second inning to win 11-7 on a walk-off grand slam by Emily Carosone. Though the bomb hit by Carosone and the over-the-wall home run theft by Tiffany Howard will be singular plays everyone will remember, the come from behind effort has never been done on this stage.

In fact, the combined 18 runs from last night’s game is tied for second all time. Only the 2010 matchup between UCLA and Arizona featured more runs. In that 24 run game, the game, unlike last night’s game was never in jeopardy for UCLA. Dating back to the first championship game in 1982, there have only been seven games where a team has scored seven or more runs, much less made a comeback from being down seven. 

Of the 13 three game series, only four of them have gone to game three. Oklahoma has been in one of those series and lost to Alabama in 2012. This is Auburn’s first trip to the WCWS and the Finals, so a cumulative look at the SEC is in order.

Discounting the 2014 All-SEC matchup between Florida and Alabama, the SEC is 2-6 in WCWS since going to a best of three series. Additionally, the SEC is 2-1 in the deciding game three. Oklahoma is 0-1 in their lone game three appearance. The Sooners are the only current member of the Big-12 to play in the WCWS finals. Auburn joins Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and Texas A&M as SEC schools to make the finals. Alabama is 1-1, Florida 2-2, TAMU 0-2, Tennessee 0-1. 

How can Auburn win tonight’s deciding game and win their first ever National Championship? 

 

Auburn can slow the Boomer Sooner offensive attack drastically, thanks to an extensive pitching staff. Corey Myers showed last night that having a staff instead of an ace is a winning technique, even if it is unconventional in past WCWS. Kaylee Carlson got the start but began hemorrhaging hits and runs in the second before being relieved by Rachael Walters.  Walters held the Sooners in check, allowing no runs on five hits before Makayla Martin entered in the seventh. Martin was flawless, allowing just one hit and earning the win. With a staff like that (and also a decent bullpen to boot), Myers can stop any momentum on a dime and do it multiple times by changing pitchers. With lefty Walters, he also has the ability pinch-pitch to left-handed hitters. 

In terms of pitching, Auburn has to avoid pitching to Shay Knighten, even if that means pitching to Sydney Romero. Romero has been extremely hot but I just don’t think she can maintain the pace. Knighten, however, is a threat at the plate at every at-bat. Lastly, Auburn must get Erin Miller, the OU lead-off hitter, out by any means necessary. She has scored three runs by herself, two last night without a hit. On her eight plate appearances, Auburn has put her out only twice. The moment hasn’t looked too big for the freshmen Knighten and Shay, but that could change tonight. 

Defensively, Auburn has been stung multiple times by creeping the infield towards the batter in anticipation of slaps and bunts. There have been a handful of Oklahoma hits that either were driven or chopped just too high for the Auburn infield to handle. They would be best served by staying on or near the grass. To keep the Sooners from bunting, Auburn’s pitchers must be an integral part of the defensive unit. Martin and and Carlson have been acceptable at fielding, but both Lexi Davis and Walters have had plays were they were slow to react. Catcher Carlee Wallace has been much better this series at fielding bunts and making throws after struggling at times this year. She was spot on last night. 

Auburn’s outfield has been simply outstanding. There isn’t much to say about them otherwise.

The offense hasn’t scored in the first inning in either game. Instead, the Tigers have waited until late to make their move. Against OU lefty ace Paige Parker, Auburn didn’t earn their first hit until the fourth inning. They didn’t record another hit until a last inning push where they began seeing Parker’s pitches. Parker needed just 91 pitches to earn a win with 56 of them being strikes.

Parker was excellent at getting Auburn to hit shallow fly balls. What changed for Auburn in those late innings? Auburn began watching pitches. Parker wasn’t taken to more than a four pitch at-bat until the fourth inning nor was she taken to a full count until a Kasey Cooper walk in the sixth. Before the seventh inning, 14 of Auburn’s 18 outs were done on less than a two pitch count. By the sixth, Auburn was finally getting multiple base runners. How? Going deep into the count. It isn’t that Parker’s arm tires. It’s her legs. her velocity began to drop and she began to miss her spots. If Auburn can somehow get Parker to, say, 50 pitches by the third inning, Auburn wins this game. 

It is that 50th pitch that seems to matter. Of the 91 pitches Parker threw in game one, 23 of them were in the seventh inning alone. Auburn began doing serious damage at the 68th pitch but began seeing success in the sixth at the 50th pitch mark. 

Auburn has been as good a hitting team as there is in softball. They do it by both small ball and hitting for power. However, Auburn’s short game has been almost completely snuffed out by Oklahoma’s stifling defense which is the best in the country. Though Auburn struggled in game one with trying to hit for power and being forced into pop-ups, watching pitches and getting to the 50th pitch mark early will allow them to really tee off on Parker. 

Finally, Auburn has been incredibly clutch in the biggest moments. Though they lost game one, they did what they needed to do in order to win. The gamble didn’t pan out. However, Auburn’s clutch hitting has been phenomenal, especially from seniors Jade Rhodes, Howard and Carosone. 

If it becomes a defensive struggled, the advantage goes to Oklahoma. If it is a high scoring affair, you have to like the Tigers.

Tonight’s game is at 6PM Central on ESPN. Make sure to follow me on Twitter @Best5Zach as I live tweet. 

The post Deciding Game Three of WCWS National Championship Preview appeared first on Track 'Em Tigers, Auburn's oldest and most read independent blog.

from Track 'Em Tigers, Auburn's oldest and most read independent blog http://bit.ly/24AyZBE
via IFTTT