The former has taken place a few times in the Nick Saban era for Alabama. The Crimson Tide won the 2008, 2011 and 2012 matchups by a combined score of 127-14. Alabama was one of the top two teams in the country on all three occasions—just like it is this weekend.
The latter, however, has taken place four times since the 2008 drubbing that ended Auburn's long winning streak in the series under Tommy Tuberville.
Two of those games, the 2010 and 2013 matchups, ended with two of the most iconic wins in Auburn history—Cam Newton's 24-point comeback and Chris Davis' 100-plus-yard field-goal return.
The 2009 and 2014 Iron Bowls featured a narrow loss for a seven-win Auburn team and a surprising 55-44 shootout defeat for an eight-win one.
On Saturday, a 6-5 Auburn team will look for another unexpected result against another Alabama team that seems destined to play in the national championship game. And it's safe to say the majority of analysts expect another unrelenting win this weekend for the dominant Crimson Tide.
As Kevin Scarbinsky of AL.com noted this week, an upset for Auburn would be the biggest one in school history. A ranked Alabama team is 23-1 all-time against an unranked Auburn team, with the 2002 Tigers knocking off the No. 9 Tide by a score of 17-7 coming as the lone loss.
What will it take for Auburn to make that record 23-2? Here are three keys to success, with some lessons from the Tigers' most recent Iron Bowl victories and near-misses.
Contain Alabama's Rushing Attack
Alabama will bring its Heisman Trophy-contending running back, Derrick Henry, into Jordan-Hare Stadium this weekend. The junior leads the nation in rushing touchdowns and has recorded at least 100 yards on the ground against all but one SEC opponent this season.
Six years ago, the Tide brought a running back with a similar resume to the Plains in Mark Ingram. The eventual Heisman winner didn't have as many touchdowns that season, but he was consistently great in conference games and averaged 6.49 yards per carry heading into the Iron Bowl.
But Auburn's much-maligned 2009 defense didn't let Ingram run all over the field in that Iron Bowl matchup. He finished the game with 30 yards on 16 carries, and teammate Trent Richardson only put up 51 of his own.
The next season, when Auburn defeated Alabama in comeback fashion, Ingram only had 36 yards on 10 carries, and Richardson chipped in 24.
Priority No. 1 this year for Auburn is preventing Henry from rampaging through the heart of its defense like the Alabama back has done to plenty of teams—similarly to what LSU's Leonard Fournette did to the Tigers earlier this season.
"You look on film and it’s hard for one guy to tackle him," Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn said in quotes emailed by the school. "He’s a big, strong guy and fast. He doesn’t need too much of an opening. He has a lot of explosive plays. He can finish... He’s not going down real easy when he gets to the second level."
Auburn's run defense has had much more success against the run since the ill-fated trip to Baton Rouge—thanks in part to the return of top defender Carl Lawson—but it hasn't faced a test quite like Henry since meeting Fournette.
"We're definitely a better defense now than we were at the beginning of the season," Auburn linebacker Kris Frost said, per Duane Rankin of the Montgomery Advertiser. "That doesn't take anything away from the fact that this is going to be a big challenge for us. We're going to have to throw a lot of things at (Henry)."
Auburn must prevent Henry from doing too much damage in the second level and force tougher third-down situations for the Alabama offense.
In 2013, the Tigers stopped Alabama running back T.J. Yeldon on several short-yardage plays that led to missed field goals and a crucial turnover on downs.
Stopping Henry will be a nearly impossible task, but slowing him down from his incredible pace will give Auburn a lot more chances to succeed on both sides of the ball.
Force Mistakes and Take Full Advantage of Them
A fumble forced from behind sparked the 2010 comeback. Those missed field goals and the turnover on downs gave Auburn a chance to pull off a legendary finish in 2013.
Last season, Auburn had several opportunities to put more points on the board against an Alabama team that threw three interceptions, gave away a couple of costly penalties and blew several coverages. But the Tigers settled for field goals too often, including a 20-yarder at the end of the first half.
As Bleacher Report's Christopher Walsh noted in his preview of the Iron Bowl, mistakes hurt Alabama in its loss to Ole Miss, and Auburn has to capitalize on any of those on Saturday:
Everyone knows that Alabama’s only loss this season came in a game it had five turnovers, but it’s had no more than two in any game since then, and just one opponent had an edge in turnover ratio, Arkansas (two to one).
Two years ago, the Tigers got the Kick-Six to win, 34-28. Four years ago, it got a fumble recovery in the end zone and Onterio McCalebb’s 83-yard kickoff return for a touchdown, but it still lost, 42-14.
Alabama has scored eight non-offensive touchdowns this season. Auburn has scored two but has a history of getting them in this game.
If Auburn's defense can get Alabama into those tougher situations on offense, the Tigers may have some shots at momentum-changing interceptions.
Alabama quarterback Jake Coker has thrown a pick in six of 11 games this season, and Auburn's shaky secondary has had 11 interceptions in the past seven games—including seven in the last four.
And when Auburn gets those opportunities, it must turn them into touchdowns on the other end of the field.
Let's just ask Twitter if kicking a lot of field goals will beat Alabama:
Auburn has a newly announced Lou Groza finalist in Daniel Carlson at kicker, but the Tigers need to use him more on extra points than field goals if they want to beat the Tide this season.
Throw Them Everything You've Got on Offense
His strategy and play-calling have received their fair share of criticism this season, but one can't argue that Malzahn doesn't know how to dial up a few big plays against a team like Alabama.
In 2009, his first year as an Auburn coordinator, he got a 67-yard touchdown off a reverse to receiver Terrell Zachary. The 2010 showdown featured a perfectly designed rollout toss to the late Phillip Lutzenkirchen that served as the game-winning touchdown. Nick Marshall's pop pass to Sammie Coates tied the game in 2013.
So does Malzahn have any more surprise plays up his sleeve for the Tide this season? A reporter asked him that at his weekly press conference, and he went on a surprising little rant.
"You guys are trying to give all my secrets away, you know?" Malzahn said. "What else we want to tell them? Reverses? Any reverses? Y’all want some reverses? OK, we’ll run some reverses, all right. You want some trick plays? We’ll run some trick plays. Want to know what they’re called? Just ask me."
Malzahn, who also said, "I'm not telling you" when asked if Auburn's game plan included long passes, is being extra-guarded this week as his inconsistent offense faces one of the nation's toughest defenses.
It's going to take some surprises and a total team effort to succeed. Alabama's defensive front is one of the best college football has seen in quite some time, and it shut down Fournette earlier this month.
But the run game still needs to be a key of Auburn's offense. The Tigers are run-first at their core, even when Malzahn tries to force the issue too much through the air with quarterbacks Jeremy Johnson and Sean White.
Auburn will look to spring big plays on the ground through its counters and misdirection, trying to get those tough Tide defenders out of position.
It can attack the defense in a variety of ways, from the hard running of Peyton Barber to the all-around playmaking of Jovon Robinson to the speed on the edges from Roc Thomas, Kerryon Johnson and Ricardo Louis. If Johnson gets the nod as starting quarterback, he might be used to hit Alabama on read-options.
"We're going to need them all," Auburn offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee said, per Ryan Black of Auburn Undercover.
That will open things up for Auburn to hit an Alabama secondary that, while vastly improved in coverage from last season, has allowed some big yardage numbers in 2015.
Sustained success against this Alabama defense for one of Malzahn's least efficient offenses is far from expected, but this is the Iron Bowl—a legendary rivalry that doesn't always stick to the script.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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