Head coach Gus Malzahn’s team landed at No.7 in the preseason Amway Coaches Poll in addition to being picked by the media to win the SEC, which would pretty much ensure a chance to play for a national title.
Much of the excitement around the team is warranted even though the Tigers stumbled down the stretch to an 8-5 record in 2014. Jeremy Johnson will take over at quarterback in Malzahn’s high-powered offense, and the junior is a possible Heisman Trophy threat thanks to his exceptional passing ability and the offensive weapons at his disposal. Will Muschamp also joins the program to take over a defense that finished ninth in the SEC in total defense last season.
The road to a championship is never easy in the treacherous SEC, especially in the West Division. Auburn will have to conquer such a task, but its schedule is favorable for SEC standards. Alabama and Georgia, the Tigers’ two toughest opponents, come to Jordan-Hare Stadium, and the team plays Kentucky out of the SEC East rather than a tougher challenge like Tennessee.
Let us now go through Auburn’s schedule and predict how the Tigers will fare this season.
Idaho, Jacksonville State and San Jose State
Every team has its “cupcake” games on the schedule, and these three opponents are Auburn’s.
Jacksonville State visits Auburn in Week 2, and even though the Gamecocks finished 10-2 and won the Ohio Valley Conference last season, they will still be thoroughly outmatched as a FCS team and will not be able to beat the Tigers at home.
San Jose State and Idaho, Auburn’s opponents in Weeks 5 and 11, respectively, are in the same boat as Jacksonville State regarding a disparity in personnel. These two teams will also be tune-up games for the Tigers.
Louisville, Sept. 5
The season opens up with a challenge against ACC foe Louisville at the Georgia Dome.
The Cardinals impressed in head coach Bobby Petrino’s first season back at Louisville, finishing 9-4. Unlike most of Petrino’s past teams, he won with defense, which finished sixth nationally in total defense.
That unit only returns four starters, but some big-time transfer additions should help. The defensive line adds former Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Devonte Fields of TCU, while the secondary adds former Georgia contributors Josh Harvey-Clemons and Shaq Wiggins.
Louisville has enough surrounding talent on defense to at least stop the Tigers from scoring at will. However, the offense faces major issues. A revolving door at quarterback saw three different players start for the Cardinals, and the team still has not decided on a starter as all three return.
In addition, Louisville loses its top three receivers and three starting offensive linemen from 2014, which will not help quell the instability at quarterback. This should offer Muschamp and his defense a prime opportunity to make a splash and create havoc with star defensive end Carl Lawson to go along with some heavy blitzing.
Auburn has more ability, depth and proven playmakers on both sides of the ball than Louisville. It may be close early as both teams go through first-game jitters, but the Tigers should be able to take advantage of the Cardinals’ inept offense and wear out the defense. Auburn wins 28-13.
At LSU, Sept. 19
Auburn and LSU have had a physical rivalry throughout the years, but the Bayou Bengals have dominated at home recently.
Auburn has not beaten LSU in Baton Rouge since 1999, but that streak could be broken in 2015.
Head coach Les Miles has again produced a loaded depth chart, particularly on defense. However, quarterback still remains the Achilles’ heel of the team. Take a look at the numbers of Brandon Harris and Anthony Jennings, the two men vying for the job, in SEC play last season:
The massive inefficiencies coupled with the turnovers make LSU a beatable team in 2015, especially early on in the season when either quarterback is likely still not comfortable effectively running the offense.
With a vaunted secondary led by Jalen Mills and a strong front seven featuring linebacker Kendell Beckwith and defensive tackle Davon Godchaux, LSU will undoubtedly be able to combat Auburn’s offense.
Yet, Auburn will load up to contain running back Leonard Fournette and force either Harris or Jennings to win the game, which at this point would not seem likely. Auburn is able to escape LSU with a win to start SEC play. Auburn wins 20-10.
Mississippi State, Sept. 26
A week after a grueling battle with LSU, Auburn must come right back to take on Dak Prescott and the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Prescott led his team on a magical season as the Bulldogs spent four weeks as the nation’s top ranked team. They also took down Auburn 38-23 in a high-profile matchup.
The star quarterback is essentially the only key player returning for head coach Dan Mullen’s team. A whopping 13 starters are gone, and the team must replace instrumental pieces such as running back Josh Robinson and linebacker Benardrick McKinney.
De’Runnya Wilson, a strong receiver, will give a smaller Auburn secondary some issues. However, the Tigers are superior to the Bulldogs at every position outside of quarterback. Especially with the game being at Auburn, Malzahn and his team will get revenge in 2015. Auburn wins 34-20.
At Kentucky, Oct. 15
Kentucky greatly improved in its second year under head coach Mark Stoops, going from 2-10 to 5-7 while looking much more competitive.
Quarterback Patrick Towles will be back after throwing for over 3,000 yards last season. He will be surrounded by Stanley Johnson, last season’s leading rusher, and leading receiver Ryan Timmons.
On defense, replacing first-round pick Bud Dupree will be a challenge, but returners such as nose tackle Melvin Lewis and safety A.J. Stamps will be able to anchor a unit that returns seven starters total.
The Wildcats are on the rise and should be able to clinch a bowl in 2015, but they are still heavily mismatched against Auburn, even at home.
Towles will lead a couple of scoring drives, and the home crowd will keep the game close early, but Kentucky does not have enough defensive line depth to stop Auburn’s rushing attack. This will wear down the Wildcats and create more space on the outside for star receiver D’haquille Williams. Auburn wins 38-20
At Arkansas, Oct. 24
At this point in the schedule, this will be Auburn’s toughest matchup so far in 2015.
Arkansas returns a powerful rushing attack headlined by Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams, who each ran for over 1,100 yards and 12 scores in 2014. Add in Brandon Allen, who has the most starts of any active quarterback in the SEC with 25, and a strong offensive line and the Tigers will have their hands full on defense.
Yet, there are two reasons Auburn can still feel good about this game.
Firstly, Allen has been ineffective against Auburn in his career. Check out his combined numbers from two starts against the Tigers:
Considering this in two starts, these statistics are extremely pedestrian. Arkansas has also not had much success running the football against Auburn in the last two seasons, both under head coach Bret Bielema. The Razorbacks are averaging 188 yards rushing against the Tigers while averaging 213 yards per game total in that time span. With Muschamp revamping the defense, there is not much reason to believe much will change on the ground.
Arkansas’ defense will also be down from last year’s unit that finished second in the SEC in total yards per game. Stars such as Trey Flowers, Darius Philon and Martrell Spaight are all gone with not a great deal of experience taking their place. Seeing how Johnson carved up Arkansas for 243 yards and two touchdowns in just the first half against last year’s defense, he and the Tigers should have no issues this season.
Auburn should comfortably outscore Arkansas on the road. Auburn wins 31-17.
Mississippi, Oct. 31
Auburn and Mississippi played a classic last season in Oxford that the Tigers ended up winning 35-31 after a late defensive stop.
The two teams play at Jordan-Hare Stadium this season, and while Auburn is much improved, Ole Miss is not, particularly on offense. The team does not have a quarterback, and there is definitely a possibility that the Rebels could be on their second or third signal-caller by the time Week 9 rolls around. This could slightly neutralize receiver Laquon Treadwell and tight end Evan Engram, Mississippi’s two top offensive weapons.
The defense is still stout with the return of defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche and safety Tony Conner. The unit will likely not be as strong as last season after losing stalwarts such as linebacker D.T. Shackelford, cornerback Senquez Golson and safety Cody Prewitt. Auburn scored 35 on the Rebels last season on the road, and that number could very well be similar in 2015.
This will be another case of one team not being able to keep pace with Auburn offensively. Auburn wins 35-17.
At Texas A&M, Nov. 7
Defensively, this game represents the worst matchup all season for Auburn.
Quarterback Kyle Allen leads probably the best passing attack in the SEC. He impressed after taking over as the Aggies signal-caller halfway through 2014 and finished with eight touchdowns and only three picks against SEC competition. Allen also has a loaded arsenal of weapons with receivers Christian Kirk, Speedy Noil, Ricky Seals-Jones and Josh Reynolds.
Auburn’s biggest weakness is its secondary, and Texas A&M is the best team to exploit that. The Tigers finished 10th in the SEC in passing yards allowed per game and also surrendered 277 yards on four touchdowns to Allen at home in 2014, his first career SEC start.
Behind Blake Countess, Joshua Holsey and Jonathan Jones, Auburn has no real proven depth at cornerback. This should be tempered a bit by this point in the season, but no team on the schedule presents the passing depth of A&M.
The Tigers will be able to score as well. Texas A&M was the conference’s worst defense in terms of yards allowed per game in 2014, but it was still able to beat Auburn. The unit will definitely be improved with new defensive coordinator John Chavis taking over.
With Auburn having to constantly pass to keep up with A&M, this will play perfectly into the Aggies’ strength, which is the pass rush with Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall. The Tigers will be doomed by their pass defense and Texas A&M will clinch the game with a sack on the final drive to hold on and hand Auburn its first loss. Texas A&M wins 45-41.
Georgia, Nov. 14
The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry may only be slightly in Georgia’s favor historically at 53-51, but the Bulldogs have dominated Auburn as of late.
Check out the results between the two teams the last four seasons:
Notice the rushing yards racked up by Georgia. This is significant because once again the Bulldogs will rely heavily on its ground game behind Heisman contender Nick Chubb. He gashed Auburn for 144 yards on 19 carries in 2014.
With Georgia returning four starters on the offensive line, Chubb should again have a great day running the ball. Brice Ramsey is also the favorite to win the quarterback job in Athens, per Sam Cooper of Yahoo Sports. He should be fully comfortable and entrenched at this point of the season, which makes Georgia even more dangerous offensively.
Defensively, head coach Mark Richt’s team has some question marks in the secondary, which Auburn can exploit with Williams and Ricardo Louis. However, a disruptive front seven, led by defensive tackle Trent Thompson and linebackers Leonard Floyd and Jordan Jenkins will keep the Tigers’ rushing attack at bay.
If this happens, Auburn will be too one-dimensional on offense and Georgia will dominate possession with its running attack. Richt again continues his control of the Tigers, who drop a second straight game. Georgia wins 27-17.
Alabama, Nov. 28
The Iron Bowl is always one of the best games of the college football season, and it should stay that way in 2015 with these teams so evenly matched.
Alabama again boasts a powerful defense with a front seven anchored by defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson and linebacker Reggie Ragland and has a secondary that is experienced and extremely talented despite getting torched at the end of last season.
Under Malzahn, Auburn has been able to handle Nick Saban and Kirby Smart’s vaunted defense. Here are the basic numbers from the last two seasons against the Crimson Tide:
Auburn has shown it can either run all over Alabama or shred it through the air if necessary. With the plethora of weapons the Tigers have this season, they again will be able to move the ball.
In the past two seasons, Alabama has countered with an explosive offense of its own. That is not likely to be the case now that Amari Cooper is no longer around to single-handedly dismantle Auburn’s secondary, as can be seen in the highlights below:
Alabama currently does not have a quarterback, and there is no telling at this point how effective the position will become for the Tide in 2015. Also, running back Derrick Henry is really the only proven playmaker on the entire offense.
Henry will have a solid game, but Auburn’s front seven will be able to keep him from running wild. Alabama’s passing game will not be enough to threaten the Tiger secondary. Plus, the offensive line is not the caliber of Georgia’s, so do not expect Alabama to follow the Bulldogs’ ground-and-pound strategy.
Auburn will give itself a chance to win the SEC West with a win over Alabama. However, the outcomes of others in the division could keep the Tigers from a shot at a conference title and thus, a spot in the College Football Playoff. Auburn wins 28-21.
Auburn Finishes 10-2 (6-2 in the SEC)
All statistics are courtesy of Sports-Reference.com
All returning starter information comes from Phil Steele's projections.
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